Most jobs are not filled from the pile

Uncomfortable, well documented, and not primarily about nepotism.

A large share of appointments involve some prior connection: a referral, a former colleague, somebody who had met the candidate. This is often read as unfairness, and while it does produce unfair outcomes, the mechanism is mostly risk reduction. A hiring manager facing an expensive and uncertain decision prefers a candidate about whom somebody they trust can say something specific.

The practical implication is not that applications are pointless, which is untrue, but that an application accompanied by any connection performs substantially better than the same application arriving cold. Connection here means very little: a conversation with somebody in the team, an interaction at an industry event, a message that received a reply.

For people without existing networks, this is a real disadvantage and it is worth stating rather than glossing. What partially substitutes is visible work: something written, built or contributed in public that establishes competence independently of anybody vouching for it.

Employers reading this should note the corollary, which is that a referral-heavy pipeline reproduces the existing composition of the organisation with considerable efficiency, and that this is a design outcome rather than an accident.

The practical response to the referral effect is narrower than networking, which most people find unpleasant and do badly. It is to ask one specific question of one person who already knows you: whether they know anybody at the organisation, or in the field, who would be willing to have a fifteen-minute conversation. That request is small enough to be granted and it produces most of the available benefit.